Summary
• Global Travel & Tourism continues to grow in spite of the continuing economic challenges.
• Despite progressive downgrades to growth forecasts through 2011, the industry grew by 3% over the course of the year (in terms of Travel & Tourism’s contribution to GDP).
• Tourism’s direct contribution to GDP in 2011 was US$2 trillion and the industry generated 98 million jobs.
• Taking account of its direct, indirect and induced impacts, Travel & Tourism’s total contribution in 2011 was US$6.3 trillion in GDP, 255 million jobs, US$743 billion in investment and US$1.2 trillion in exports. This contribution represented 9% of GDP, 1 in 12 jobs, 5% of investment and 5% of exports.
• Growth forecasts for 2012, although lower than anticipated a year ago, are still positive at 2.8% in terms of the industry’s contribution to GDP.
• Longer-term prospects are even more positive with annual growth forecast to be 4.2% over the ten years to 2022.
• Global Travel & Tourism continues to grow in spite of the continuing economic challenges.
• Despite progressive downgrades to growth forecasts through 2011, the industry grew by 3% over the course of the year (in terms of Travel & Tourism’s contribution to GDP).
• Tourism’s direct contribution to GDP in 2011 was US$2 trillion and the industry generated 98 million jobs.
• Taking account of its direct, indirect and induced impacts, Travel & Tourism’s total contribution in 2011 was US$6.3 trillion in GDP, 255 million jobs, US$743 billion in investment and US$1.2 trillion in exports. This contribution represented 9% of GDP, 1 in 12 jobs, 5% of investment and 5% of exports.
• Growth forecasts for 2012, although lower than anticipated a year ago, are still positive at 2.8% in terms of the industry’s contribution to GDP.
• Longer-term prospects are even more positive with annual growth forecast to be 4.2% over the ten years to 2022.
Employment Outlook
• In 2011, 98 million jobs were directly created in the Travel & Tourism industry worldwide.
• But more than twice as many jobs, 2.5 million, were created as a result of total Travel & Tourism activity – not just jobs directly in the industry, but also those in supply sectors and jobs created by the spending of industry employees.
• In 2012, a further 2.3 million direct jobs and 5.2 million total (direct/indirect and induced) jobs are expected to be created, resulting in a 2% growth in the industry’s contribution to employment over the year.
• By 2022, the industry is expected to directly generate 120 million jobs, with total Travel & Tourism employment worldwide projected at 328 million jobs (nearly 1 in 10).
Regional Outlook
• Strongest growth in Travel & Tourism’s direct contribution to GDP will come from Asia, in particular South Asia (6.7%), driven by India (7.6%) and Northeast Asia also set to grow by 6.7% (driven by continued strong growth in China and the recovery of demand in and for Japan) where rising incomes will generate an increase in domestic tourism spend and a sharp upturn in capital investment.
• Southeast Asia is slightly lagging its neighbours, with 4.3% forecast growth, with strong performances by Indonesia (7.6%) and the Philippines (9.9%) counterbalanced by just over 2% growth in both Thailand and Singapore. Oceania, which includes the mature markets of Australia and New Zealand, is expected to grow at a slower pace (1.9%), as the continued
strength of the Australian dollar puts pressure on domestic travel and affects the country’s international competitiveness. Latin America will be one of the strongest performing world regions, with a projected 5.6% growth in Travel & Tourism direct GDP. Brazil, by far the largest Travel & Tourism economy in the region, will lead this growth (7.8%), despite currency pressures and the looming threat of recession. Growth in domestic demand across the region will outpace all other world regions – at 6.8% – highlighting the importance of regional interconnectivity and local and intra-regional markets.
• The Caribbean remains one of the most tourism-intensive regions, but growth in 2012 will be only slightly higher than the world average at just 2.6%. A decline, in real terms, in capital investment in the region reflects the pressure put on the industry as source markets in North America and Europe tighten their belts.
• After an extremely challenging 2011 when civil unrest and violence had a dramatic impact on demand for Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, North Africa is showing signs of recovery in 2012 with Travel & Tourism direct GDP growth forecast at 3.6%. Morocco (8.3%) will be the star performer of this region as negative perceptions of security continue to affect tourism in Egypt and Tunisia.
• In the Middle East, where civil unrest and violence in some countries continues, growth will be more subdued (3%), although there are stark differences at country level. Qatar will grow fastest at 13.2% while Syria will likely see another dramatic fall, estimated at 20.5%, as the political situation worsens, increasing concerns over security. It is worth noting that 14% of all international arrivals in the Middle East in 2010 were for Syria, the second most important destination in the region after Saudi Arabia.
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s direct Travel & Tourism GDP is set to grow fairly strongly at 5.4% over 2011, backed by a combination of increased government expenditure, higher levels of capital investment and an upturn in visitor exports.
• The mature economies of North America and Europe will continue to struggle in 2012. North America, which is saw a slight upturn in the USA’s economic situation at the end of 2011, should see growth of only 1.3% in Travel & Tourism direct GDP over the year.
• The prospects for Travel & Tourism growth in Europe in 2012 are precarious. Current forecasts suggest 0.3% growth in Travel & Tourism direct GDP for the region overall, but this will be propped up by newer economies such as Poland and, of course, Russia. A decline of 0.3% is expected across the European Union. Consumer spending is set to tighten as austerity measures kick in, and there continues to be considerable uncertainty around the future of the eurozone and peripheral economies of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
strength of the Australian dollar puts pressure on domestic travel and affects the country’s international competitiveness. Latin America will be one of the strongest performing world regions, with a projected 5.6% growth in Travel & Tourism direct GDP. Brazil, by far the largest Travel & Tourism economy in the region, will lead this growth (7.8%), despite currency pressures and the looming threat of recession. Growth in domestic demand across the region will outpace all other world regions – at 6.8% – highlighting the importance of regional interconnectivity and local and intra-regional markets.
• The Caribbean remains one of the most tourism-intensive regions, but growth in 2012 will be only slightly higher than the world average at just 2.6%. A decline, in real terms, in capital investment in the region reflects the pressure put on the industry as source markets in North America and Europe tighten their belts.
• After an extremely challenging 2011 when civil unrest and violence had a dramatic impact on demand for Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, North Africa is showing signs of recovery in 2012 with Travel & Tourism direct GDP growth forecast at 3.6%. Morocco (8.3%) will be the star performer of this region as negative perceptions of security continue to affect tourism in Egypt and Tunisia.
• In the Middle East, where civil unrest and violence in some countries continues, growth will be more subdued (3%), although there are stark differences at country level. Qatar will grow fastest at 13.2% while Syria will likely see another dramatic fall, estimated at 20.5%, as the political situation worsens, increasing concerns over security. It is worth noting that 14% of all international arrivals in the Middle East in 2010 were for Syria, the second most important destination in the region after Saudi Arabia.
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s direct Travel & Tourism GDP is set to grow fairly strongly at 5.4% over 2011, backed by a combination of increased government expenditure, higher levels of capital investment and an upturn in visitor exports.
• The mature economies of North America and Europe will continue to struggle in 2012. North America, which is saw a slight upturn in the USA’s economic situation at the end of 2011, should see growth of only 1.3% in Travel & Tourism direct GDP over the year.
• The prospects for Travel & Tourism growth in Europe in 2012 are precarious. Current forecasts suggest 0.3% growth in Travel & Tourism direct GDP for the region overall, but this will be propped up by newer economies such as Poland and, of course, Russia. A decline of 0.3% is expected across the European Union. Consumer spending is set to tighten as austerity measures kick in, and there continues to be considerable uncertainty around the future of the eurozone and peripheral economies of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
Ten-year outlook
• Travel & Tourism’s direct contribution to world GDP is set to grow at 4.2% per annum over the next ten years.
• The Asia Pacific region will continue to lead this growth (6.2% pa), with South Asia outperforming all other world sub-regions at 7.2%. Growth will continue to be driven by increasing wealth in the middle classes.
• Africa, Latin America and the Middle East will also outperform the world average over the next ten years with growth at 4.8%, 4.6% and 4.1% pa respectively as incomes rise and government spending follows suit.
• Mature markets in North America and the Caribbean are forecast to grow their Travel & Tourism direct GDP at 3.3% and 3.1% pa respectively.
• Current forecasts for Europe, which assume that economic growth will be back on track by 2014, point to long-term growth in Travel & Tourism direct GDP of 2.6% per annum to 2022.
• Travel & Tourism’s direct contribution to world GDP is set to grow at 4.2% per annum over the next ten years.
• The Asia Pacific region will continue to lead this growth (6.2% pa), with South Asia outperforming all other world sub-regions at 7.2%. Growth will continue to be driven by increasing wealth in the middle classes.
• Africa, Latin America and the Middle East will also outperform the world average over the next ten years with growth at 4.8%, 4.6% and 4.1% pa respectively as incomes rise and government spending follows suit.
• Mature markets in North America and the Caribbean are forecast to grow their Travel & Tourism direct GDP at 3.3% and 3.1% pa respectively.
• Current forecasts for Europe, which assume that economic growth will be back on track by 2014, point to long-term growth in Travel & Tourism direct GDP of 2.6% per annum to 2022.
source: Economic Impact of Travel and Tourism 2012, by World Travel & Tourism Council
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